As expected, win for life, the new game of SISAL that allows you to win € 4000 for 20 years, is enjoying great success. Perhaps the idea to win a kind of annuity is very attractive to the millions of Italians (including me) who have already experienced this game. However, I personally believe that it is not the main reason for the success of this game. Although I do not know why, you have the feeling that the probability of hitting the winning combination is not so remote. In fact, using a simple mathematical analysis of the problem, we can not deny this feeling and conclude that it is just an illusion, probably due to the fact that the winning numbers are extracted from a group of 20 and not among a group of 90 as normally occurs in traditional lotto games.
Just to give you an idea, we calculate how many possible combinations of 10 numbers to choose from 20 available (simple combinations). For this you can use the formula n! / K! (nk)!, The result is 184756. This means that to be sure to do 10 184 756 combinations would need to play, then spending € 184,756! But of course in this way would make sure to win only about 10000 € under the regulation.
The probability instead of the center also Numeron, although higher than the 6 to make the lottery, is very low. Taking a brief analysis in the case of a play 1 euro, since the probability of hitting the 10 numbers equal to 1 / 184756, and since the probability of hitting the Numeron equal to 1 / 20, it can be concluded that the probability of winning € 4000 per month for 20 years is equal to 1 / (20 * 184,756) = 1 / 3695120. This means that statistically you have a winning hand every play 3695120!
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